by Kelvin F Long
Recently I published a paper giving an explanation for the Fermi Paradox which I call the Spatial-Temporal-Variance (STV) hypothesis. It relates to the temporal and spatial scales of emerging intelligent civilizations in the galaxy. Calculations were conducted for populations of von Neumann probes expanding out through the galaxy as a dispersal problem. I used geometrical series as a representation of the growth of a population and diffusion theory as a representation of the decay of a population. This results in two possible extremes including Drake-Sagan chauvinism for a crowded galaxy and Hart-Viewing chauvinism for a quiet galaxy, and then everything else in between. I argued that our galaxy is likely to be populated but sparsely.
For more information see the paper:
K. F. Long, "Galactic Crossing Times for Robotic Probes Driven by Inertial Confinement Fusion Propulsion", JBIS, 75, 118-126, 2022.
